Adobe forecasts 4.8% growth YoY in online holiday spending

This year’s holiday season, running from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, will see 4.8% growth YoY in online spending. Adobe Analytics bases its forecasts on data from one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.

Adobe expects over $220 billion in online sales this year. Buy Now Pay Later is expected to drive some $17 billion in sales, a dramatic increase of 16.9% over 2022.

More forecasts. Adobe also released insights into the likely brand winners this season, leading product categories, discounts and the role of mobile, as well as a specific forecast for Cyber Week.

• Winning brands this year include LEGO Minifigures, Kanoodle 3D and anything representing Barbie the Movie.
• Electronics, apparel, furniture and home goods, groceries and toys will drive more than half the overall ecommerce spend this year.
• Record discounts up to 35% off listed prices are also forecast, especially during Cyber Week.
• A foreseeable but nonetheless major milestone: Mobile will beat desktop for the first time as the preferred channel for online shopping.
• Cyber Week alone will drive $37.2 billion in online spending, up 5.4% YoY and representing 16.8% of the holiday season.

The holiday season as defined by Adobe comes on the heels of another major online shopping event, Amazon’s Prime Days in October.

Why we care. We’re struck by the role played by groceries. Pre-lockdown, who bought groceries online? It looks like we started but never stopped, with food now ranking alongside traditional ecommerce rainmakers like electronics and clothes.

Also, perhaps to state the obvious, consumers may speak about low confidence in the economy, but they are still reaching for their virtual pocketbooks.

Dig deeper: A look ahead to Amazon’s Prime Big Deals Days